DeSantis is running a pro-Trump version of the never-Trump playbook
Plus: Biden and friends have spent more in an off year than any other incumbent in U.S. history and all he got was this lousy approval rating
Hello, in this issue we’ll look at…
Biden and friends have spent more in an off year than any other incumbent in U.S. history and all he got was this lousy approval rating
Nikki Haley just launched her first television ad of the campaign
DeSantis is running a pro-Trump version of the never-Trump playbook
Scroll to the end to see: the White House’s beefy new lectern.
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Biden and friends have spent more in an off year than any other incumbent in U.S. history and all he got was this lousy approval rating
Even as President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign and pro-Biden groups have spent $45.6 million advertising this year, more than any other incumbent U.S. president in an off year, his approval rating sits at about 38%, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
Pro-Biden spending this year outpaces the $36.5 million former President Donald Trump’s campaign and allies spent in 2019, and the $7.3 million former President Barack Obama and allies spent in 2011, according to the ad tracking firm AdImpact.
Biden’s strategy is also different from Trump’s four years ago. Whereas Trump’s campaign and allies spent nationally, dropping more than $100,000 in 41 states in 2019, Biden’s campaign and allies are hyper-focused on swing states, only cracking six-figure spending in eight states. That has more in common with Obama’s winning approach in 2011, AdImpact noted.
Pro-Biden spending is also more focused on broadcast and cable television than the heavily digital-focused off-year pro-Trump ad spending of 2019:
Pro-Biden spending this year comes mainly from four groups: the Biden campaign ($11.2 million); the digital-focused joint fundraising committee Biden Victory Fund ($4.8 million); DNC/Biden ($4.8 million), which coordinates ad buys between the Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee; and the biggest spender, Future Forward USA Action ($19.8 million), which is affiliated with a pro-Biden Future Forward super PAC.
Nikki Haley just launched her first television ad of the campaign
Former U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley is out with her first TV ad of the campaign, titled “Moral Clarity.” The 30-second spot started airing Friday in Iowa and New Hampshire with a $10 million ad buy, according to Politico, which first reported the ad.
“A president must have moral clarity and know the difference between good and evil,” Haley says in the ad’s opening over footage at the United Nations.
“Today, China, Russia and Iran are advancing. There's chaos in our streets and college campuses. Our security is threatened at home and abroad,” she says. There’s a clip of Haley in sunglasses walking in front of a helicopter, clips of protests and people with guns, and an American flag being burned. Then a close shot of Haley in a power red dress: “It's time for a new generation of conservative leadership.”
Over b-roll of Haley shaking hands with voters and wearing a hard hat, as politicians do, she closes by saying, “We have to leave behind the chaos and drama of the past and strengthen our country and our pride and our purpose.”
Benedict Pringle, author of the book “Primed” about primary campaign narratives, said he believes that like much of Haley’s campaign communication, the ad “tries to say everything and ends up saying nothing.”
“In 30 seconds she’s the candidate who shares your values, and she’s the candidate with the strength to protect you against threats and then she’s the candidate without baggage who can offer a fresh start,” Pringle said. “It leaves me completely cold because there’s no narrative that strings all these disparate things together. The campaign has avoided making a strategic choice as to what their candidate’s narrative is.”
He said she’s trying to run the Egalitarian, Protector and Phoenix narratives.
Haley’s first ad is expected to soon be joined by advertising from Americans for Prosperity Action, the conservative super PAC that endorsed her late last month.
DeSantis is running a pro-Trump version of the never-Trump playbook
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is banking on the endorsement of his Iowa supporters to pull off a strong performance in next month’s caucus.
This fall, a conservative super PAC working to prevent Trump from winning the nomination wrote in a memo to donors that traditional attack ads on the former president were ineffective at influencing Republican voters. However one thing that did work, per Win It Back PAC’s findings, was ads starring former Trump voters who raised concerns over “Trump fatigue.”
DeSantis’ campaign appears to have read the memo because that’s the approach he takes in his new ad “Iowans for Ron.”
The 30-second spot, his campaign’s third, is airing exclusively in Iowa, according to CBS News, which first reported the ad. It opens with a small-business employee named Anthony who says he voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020, then cuts to a 5th generation Iowa farmer named Ross sitting in the driver’s seat of a truck who says, “but we’ve got to move on.” Cut to a clip of DeSantis at his most recent inauguration as Florida governor with his family in tow and wife Casey doing her best Melania impression in a cape dress and gloves. OK, I see where this is going.
“That’s why I support Ron DeSantis because he fights and he knows how to win,” says John, a bearded combat veteran wearing a baseball hat, blazer, and blue jeans sitting in the back of a truck definitely not drinking a Bud Light.
A female supporter appears 17 seconds in. “I believe Ron DeSantis will get the economy on track because when Ron DeSantis says he’s going to do something, he does it,” says Ashley, a mom of three. There’s then a triple split screen of DeSantis showing off his signature at signing ceremonies to applause, like Trump used to do.
Kristine, a woman labeled simply a “Proud Iowan,” closes with the final endorsement, saying, “He’s drama free (editor’s note: is he??), and effective, a proven leader.”
The ad closes with footage of DeSantis and his family with Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, his most high-profile backer in the state. The spot positions DeSantis as heir to Trump but without as many headaches. Same great Trump taste, fewer calories.
Have you seen this?
The White House briefing room got a new lectern. Named for Alice Dunnigan and Ethel Payne, the first the first two Black women in the White House press corps, the hunky new lectern (bottom right), “looks like it could be at home in the dashboard of Tesla’s Cybertruck,” writes Pete Oyler in Fast Company. “The design of Biden’s lectern is successful, not in how it stands or holds papers, but in where it locates us within our current political theater. The lectern itself may be new, but its clunky combination of elements represents chasms of American political culture that have been long festering—and are now center stage.” See more pics here from NBC News’ Kelly O’Donnell.
Sheila Jackson Lee tells Houston voters to go to polls – on the wrong day. Oh no. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee's mayoral campaign released an advertisement urging supporters to vote – but with the incorrect date for Houston's mayoral runoff listed. [Houston Chronicle]
RFK Jr. super PAC to spend $10 million-plus to get on key state ballots. The super PAC American Values 2024 announced plans Tuesday to spend $10 million to $15 million on efforts to get Kennedy on the ballot next fall. [NBC News]
Jay-Z is auctioning custom library cards to benefit the Brooklyn Public Library. The sale caps the rapper's autobiographical "The Book of HOV" exhibition at the library, which closed Tuesday. [Artnet News]
Whose America? Right-wing group hides behind flowery, feel-good language. In July of 2022, a press release was sent out touting a new “cultural movement pushing back on those who attack and divide the country.” The release announced a new ad campaign and organization called Our America, “led by” a “Former ANTIFA Activist” and “Former Democrat Candidate,” with a vision of uniting the country around civility and coming together. [FWIW]
🔒 YELLO subscriber exclusive:
History of political design
Jesse Jackson campaign poster (1984). This ink on poster board poster from the Jesse Jackson for President Committee shows Democrats were using logos at an angle decades before the “AOC slant.”
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